I really need to learn to stop tempting fate. In yesterday’s newsletter, I told you about how I was still buzzing about the bears drafting Justin Fields, and I wrote about how I wanted the Packers to swap Aaron Rodgers for his happiness with my tongue planted firmly in my cheek.
Then the White Sox announced that Luis Robert would be out for three to four months (more on what that means from a game perspective below), and all the fun was sucked out of the room for me. So I learned an important lesson here: enjoy the good that belongs to teams you love, but do not spot the evil that belongs to others, for fate always waits around the corner, ready to hit you in the face with a frying pan .
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Maybe the White Sox can act for Aaron Rodgers and get him to play midfield?
Let us catch up on your daily reading anyway.
Ok, so let’s hope tonight’s election is all winners and no one gets hurt.
All times Eastern and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The hot ticket
Orioles at Mariners, 22:10 | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Mariners (-130): Who wants to stay up late and see a couple of bad baseball teams with me? OK, to be fair, the Seafarers are 16-14 while the Orioles are 14-15, but those records are a little misleading and are unlikely to hold up throughout the season. I think seafarers are the better of these two and there is some surplus value on them at this price.
None of these offenses are very good, but Baltimore has been particularly horrific against right-wingers like Seattle starter Justin Dunn. Baltimore’s offense ranks 30th (this is last) in wOBA against right-wingers, and it’s tied for 26th in wRC + against them. Its 2.55% HR rate ranks 23. In addition, the Seattle bullpen has an ERA of 2.48, which is currently the best brand in baseball. It’s the Seattle bullpen that has kept this team afloat, and I think it’s helpful tonight as well, helping to end a win over Baltimore.
Main trend: Seattle is 13-4 after the last 17 losses.
Here’s what SportsLine says about the game: Sportsline expert John Bollman is 20-11 in his last 31 money games involving the Mariners, and he also has a money line game for tonight’s match.
Mets at the Cardinals, 19:45 | TV: MLB.TV
The choice: cardinals (+183) – Don’t worry, everyone; Jacob deGrom starts tonight and I’m here to remind you of #OperationFadeGrom. You do not have to worry about the absolute psycho Chris Bengel showing up and telling you to bet on the Mets on an evening deGrom throws up. Some people just want to see the world burn.
At least you know the drill now. When deGrom pitches, we bet against the Mets, because even though deGrom is incredible, the Mets seem to hate him with a thousand sun fire and refuse to play well behind him. Poor Jacob enters tonight’s start with an ERA of 1.75 and has beaten 41.7% of the hitters he faces. It’s nuts!
What’s crazier is that the Mets are somehow only 2-3 in his start this season. This is nothing new as the yards are only 38-42 in deGrom’s start since 2018. It may not look good to you, but remember that yards are always preferred when he starts. The return on #OperationFadeGrom since 2018 has been around 23 units.
Main trend: Mets are only 38-42 in deGrom starting since 2018.
⚽ Champions League
Chelsea v Real Madrid, Wednesday at 15 | TV: CBS Sports Network / Paramount +
The choice: Chelsea (+115) – The first match may have ended in a 1-1 draw, but it was a misleading 1-1 draw. Karim Benzema’s goal was the kind of goal that few people who are not Karim Benzema help to score, but he did. Overall, however, Madrid’s attack was impotent and could not find a way to break through Chelsea’s defense. Madrid got nine shots, but Benzema’s goal was the only one on goal. Chelsea put five of their 11 shots on goal, which explained the difference in expected goals as Chelsea won the match 1.4-0.3.
Chelsea were the better team in almost every area in the first game and I don’t think much will change on Wednesday. It would help Madrid get both Sergio Ramos and Rhael Varane back to this match, but what kind of condition will the 35-year-old Ramos be in after missing the whole ril with a calf injury and COVID, and Varane remains a question marks as well? I took under in the first game and although I do not hate this, I think more urgency can lead to more goals being scored. It’s just, unfortunately for Real Madrid, I see Chelsea score on them much more often.
Key trend: Chelsea have won nine of their last 13 matches.
🔒 Today’s SportsLine selection: Creepy golf gloves Rick Gehman releases his best game for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte’s Quail Hollow.
FS DFS Rundown
PG: LaMelo Ball, Hornets
SG: Andrew Wiggins, Warriors
SF: Kevin Durant, Nets
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
C: Bam Adebayo, Heat
PG: Delon Wright, Kings
SG: Hamidou Diallo, stamper
SF: Cedi Osman, Cavs
PF: Marvin Bagley, Kings
C: Kevon Looney, Warriors
Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won nearly $ 2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs smashed the NBA last season, earning about 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.
⚾ MLB crystal ball
Election: Kansas City Royals Win AL Central (+425) – I do not think anyone would have had the Royals in first place in Central the first week of May, but here we are. Given the odds listed, there are clearly not many who expect this to still be the case when the end of the season is. I also do not think it is likely, but at +425 it only needs to increase 19% of the time for us to make money. And I think it’s possible!
We have futures out on the twins to win the division and even though they are currently 11-16, they can still. But I also do not think Minnesota has had trouble starting the season and there is no guarantee that they will make a significant improvement.
Then there’s the White Sox, who lost Eloy Jimenez before the season began. On Monday, the Sox lost another young superstar to Luis Robert for at least three months and probably four. In other words, the team will be without two of the biggest bats in its lineup until at the end of August at the earliest. This division suddenly looks much more winning for Kansas City, and it may take no more than 84 wins to get there.